Opening Day.
The day that I and millions of others look forward to more than any other, it’s the day we rekindle our love affair with baseball, the day when anything seems possible for our favorite team.
Baseball’s soul and legacy is about family. For me, it’s about fathers and sons. Sadly, my lifelong relationship with baseball has come under fire recently.
Kauffman Stadium (then called Royals Stadium) opened) in April of 1973. My father took me to many games, we loved the Sunday doubleheaders that were a regular part of the MLB schedule then. Dad’s favorite player was Royals second baseman Cookie Rojas. Cookie came to the Royals in 1970 in a trade with the Cardinals, but he had been a Philadelphia Phillie while my family lived just 30 miles away in Wilmington, DE.
Dad died less than 4 years after the K opened, when I was 12 years old. I’m 59 now, and it gets harder and harder to remember him. The one place I go where I feel most connected to my father is Kauffman Stadium.
Now John Sherman, the owner of the Royals, wants to abandon the K to the wrecking ball. It breaks my f*****g heart.
I’ve taken my own sons Matthew and Andrew to the K innumerable times. I’ve coached their teams, and watched from the stands when they played high school and American Legion ball. Baseball is one of the things that binds the three of us together the strongest.
The little guy between my wife and I in that photo is our son Andrew. Last Wednesday he passed away at the age of 28, leaving behind a daughter and two sons of his own. Andrew played a lot of baseball in his life. He was the rarest of players….a left-handed catcher.
Of course as a lefty he pitched as well, but I think catching was his true love.
He started his baseball career in of all things a Mets uniform, but he refused to wear the Mets hat in the team photo.
He finished his baseball playing days as a William Chrisman High School Bear.
My heart is shattered. I feel my connection to baseball slipping away. It’s been ten years now that I have been writing this pre-season piece. To be honest, I’ve done it for myself mostly but I appreciate greatly others who find it interesting and informative.
I considered not writing it this year, considered just shutting DC down and turning my back on the game that four generations of my family have loved..
But here I am.
I don’t know the path forward for me, or even if one exists. But I know that if it does, baseball will be a part of it.
So let’s dive in….
It didn’t take long for new manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo to realize that the 2023 Royals were a dumpster fire. The team got off to an abominable start, and the brass started referring to 2023 as an “evaluation year”. The club tied the franchise record for most losses in a season by going 56-106.
This is now a new team. I reread the 2019 Manifesto this morning and of all the players AND prospects I mentioned in it, only Sal Perez, Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Brady Singer are still Royals. Picollo has now gone through what almost everyone, me included, considered a great off-season. Quatraro has a year under his belt as a manager, and more importantly he has some more tools in his toolbox. This doesn’t mean the two are free from scrutiny this year. Another 100 loss season would likely spell the end for both in Kansas City.
I always start a new season by looking back at my predictions for the previous year, so here were my hot takes from the 2023 Pre-Season Manifesto…
The Minnesota Twins win the AL Central with a 93-69 record
The Twins were AL Central champs in 2023, but only notched an 87-75 record. Still…I’m counting this as a win.
The Royals are represented in the All Star Game by Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Brady Singer
A shoulder injury derailed Vinnie early in 2023, and Bobby Baseball didn’t get going until the second half. Singer may never see an All Star Game. Salvador Perez was the Royals lone representative at the Mid-Summer Classic.
Singer finishes in the top 10 in AL Cy Young voting
Yikes.
The Royals announce plans to build a new stadium in the East Village area. The stadium sales tax extension is defeated at the polls in August by Jackson County voters. John Sherman throws a hissy fit, sells the team and starts an online mustache wax company.
Stay tuned on this one folks. Sherman et al dithered and delayed so much last year that not only did the stadium tax extension not get on the ballot in August, but the Royals missed their own Sept. 30th deadline for choosing a downtown stadium by almost 5 months. Despite having narrowed the site down to the afore-mentioned East Village or North Kansas City, Sherman uncorked a Blyleven-esque curveball last month by announcing the team’s intention to move to the East Crossroads area.
The vote for the stadium sales tax extension is less than a week away. The issue has split this community like nothing I have ever seen before. It will be fascinating to see what happens on April 2nd.
Let’s take a look at the 26 players (and more) that will be taking the field on Opening Day..
CATCHER
Fangraph’s Positional Power Ranking - 23rd out of 30
The Royals had real conversations last year about trading Salvador Perez. The Miami Marlins seemed a perfect fit given their abundance of young pitching, and Sal’s affinity for the Miami area. There was clear interest from the Marlins but obviously a deadline day deal wasn’t made. Sal Perez has been the beating heart of the Royals for over a decade, a trade would have shaken the fanbase to the core.
Sal still supplied some power in 2023 with 23 HRs and 80 RBI, but his overall OPS+ was below average (100) at 94.
Have his catching skills diminished? Maybe, but don’t tell that to the two starters the Royals acquired in free agency, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. Both mentioned getting the opportunity to pitch to Sal as part of their decision to sign in KC. Perez is reported to be in outstanding physical condition and he had a great spring training.
Many people think Sal is going to DH a lot this year, but I still expect to see him behind the plate most nights.
For years the Royals (and DC) touted MJ Melendez as the catcher of the future for the Royals. That’s not happening. Melendez was banished to the outfield early on in 2023 and I don’t expect to ever see him behind the plate for the Royals again.
Freddy Fermin inherited the backup catcher role from Melendez, and his performance was one of the few pleasant surprises for Royals fans. Fermin slashed 281/321/461 with 9 HRs in 70 games last year, good for a 1.7 bWAR. He’s a very capable defender with occasional pop, and the catching duties appear in good hands with he and Perez.
Looking Ahead - The Royals signed veteran catcher Austin Nola after spring taining began this year. He will start the season at AAA Omaha as injury insurance. I still have hopes for minor leaguers Luca Tresh and particularly Carter Jensen, but the real excitement at catcher is at Low A Columbia where 2023 1st round pick Blake Mitchell and international signee Ramon Ramirez will start their 2024 campaigns. DC will be watching both of these young backstops closely.
FIRST BASE
Fangraph’s Positional Power Ranking - 16th out of 30
The #1 thing I am looking forward to this baseball season is a healthy Vinnie Pasquantino. His bothersome shoulder finally at 100%, the 26 year old Pasquantino is primed for a huge season. He’s likely to bat 3rd, behind Bobby Witt Jr and the Royals will need him to be a formidable presence that keeps opponents from pitching around Bobby Baseball.
Sal Perez can fill in at first when Vinnie needs a break.
Looking Ahead - I’ve been pimping Nick Pratto in this space for years. The 25 year old has a reputation as a good defensive first baseman, and can play some corner outfield. He made 78 appearances at first base and 21 in the outfield last season. Although his defense at first migt not be as good as previously advertised, it was his bat that got him into trouble in 2023. Pratto struck out at an eye-popping 40% rate last season.
MLB teams simply can’t keep a 40% K guy on the roster. Everyone assumed he would start 2024 in AAA, and indeed he will having been optioned out of big league camp to Omaha last week. but holy smokes did Pratto have an incredible spring! he did everything he could to get back on the Royals radar, leading the team with a .421 average, 1.292 OPS, and 4 HRs all while chopping his K% in half.
Some observers thought Pratto had done enough to break camp with the big league club, but Picollo obviously wants to see him continue to show improvement in AAA. Let’s watch his strikeout rate there closely, we will definitely see Pratto back in KC at some point in 2024.
SECOND BASE
Fangraph’s Positional Power Ranking - 26th out of 30
I think incumbent Michael Massey is going to have a great 2024, but the start has been a little rocky. First the Royals signed veteran free agents Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier, both of whom have played a lot of second base. Then Massey went down with a lower back issue that has kept him out of the last week of spring training.
I think we can expect Massey to start the season on the 10-day injured list, and Adam Frazier to be the Opening Day second baseman.
I’m sure Frazier is a nice man, kind to puppies and old ladies and whatnot, but I just don’t have any interest in watching him play baseball. Massey was awful early in 2023, but had a decent second half of the year and I’m excited to see what the 26 year old can do. Let’s hope he gets healthy fast and stays that way.
Nicky Lopez (White Sox) and Samad Taylor (Mariners) are gone, so the utility/backup 2B role belongs to Nick Loftin at least until Massey gets back. I’ve loved Loftin since the Royals drafted him out of Baylor with the 32nd pick of the 2020 draft.
He’s added more muscle in the last year or so, and with that has come more extra-base power. He can play multiple infield and outfield positions, and could end up being the closest thing we have had to Whit Merrifield since well…Whit Merrifield. He doesn’t have the hit tool of peak Merrifield, but did slash 333/440/500 this spring.
Honestly my first beef of the season with Matt Quatraro is the plan to start Adam Frazier at second instead of Loftin while Massey is on the IL.
Looking Ahead - The middle infield cupboard is a little bare in the Royals organization. Javier Vaz is the guy to watch at second base, he also plays some outfield. Royals Farm Report has Vaz as the Royals 10th best prospect, he is #16 according to mlb.com.
SHORTSTOP
Fangraph’s Positional Power Ranking - 3rd out of 30
There’s no surprise that shortstop is the Royals strongest spot. Only Texas (Corey Seager) and the Mets (Francisco Lindor) come in ahead of KC according to Fangraphs. Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar, and maybe the best Royal since George Brett. He combines unlimited power with elite speed, and played tremendous defense in 2023.
The huge Royals news this offseason was the signing of Witt to a 7 year contract extension, with an additional 4 years of optouts. Will it keep Witt in KC his entire career? Probably not. It is essentially a 7 year, $140M deal. Years 8 through 11 have player opt-outs, followed by an additional 3 seasons of team opt outs.
The only way Witt Jr. chooses to opt-in after year 7 is if his performance and market value have tanked. If not, the Royals could re-negotiate the deal in 4 or 5 years if they want to keep Witt in Royal blue for his entire career.
Looking Ahead - Obviously the Royals system is not where an up and coming shortstop wants to be, unless he is young. Yandel Ricardo is very young, 17 in fact. The Royals gave the Cuban native $2.4M to sign this offseason and he will start is professional life in the Dominican Summer League. MLB has Ricardo rated the Royals 9th best prospect. Don’t sleep on 20 year old Austin Charles either.
THIRD BASE
Fangraph’s Positional Power Ranking - 26th out of 30
Hunter Dozier is an LA Angel, and third base in Kansas City belongs to Maikel Garcia. A natural shortstop, Garcia is an elite defender at third base. With Witt at SS and Garcia at third, the Royals may have the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball.
The question is whether or not Garcia’s offense will take a step forward this year. He seemed to be making excellent contact this spring with 2 HRs and a .984 OPS. He is only 24 years old so getting bigger and stronger is not out of the question.
After years of misfit toys at third base in Kansas City, it’s nice to be able to just pencil a guy in every night.
Looking Ahead - Alex Duvall of Royals Farm Report has Cayden Wallace ranked as his #1 prospect in the Kansas City system. Here’s what he had to say about the 2022 2nd round draft pick…
Wallace presents perhaps the most likely bet for a Royals prospect to be a valuable big league asset. Over his last 100 PA at AA last season, Wallace walked 10% of the time and struck out just 13% of the time. The raw power has never really been a question, Wallace is plenty strong to hit 25 home runs in the big leagues, but he doesn’t get to that raw power in games as often as you’d like, but perhaps that was an adjustment to his approach last year.
LEFT FIELD/RIGHT FIELD
Fangraph’s Positional Power Rankings - Left Field 27th and RF 26th out of 30
We can expect MJ Melendez (LF) and free agent acquisition Hunter Renfroe (RF) to get the bulk of the corner outfield work. Melendez had a good second half in 2023 and a strong spring this year, so there is reason for optimism about his offense. He has been able to focus solely on the outfield for almost a year now, we have to hope that his defense has improved.
Renfroe was slowed a bit in spring training by injury, but is healthy to start the regular season. The 32 year old’s bat speed diminished last season and he struggled to catch up to quality fastballs. If the bat speed returns in 2024, Renfroe has the potential to hit 25-30 home runs. Defensively he has a tremendous arm but limited range.
Looking Ahead - Drew Waters is a familiar name that will start the season in AAA Omaha. Gavin Cross, the club’s 1st round pick in the 2022 draft, had an atrocious 2023. It turns out that he was dealing with a case of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, a tick-transmitted disease that can linger for weeks to months. Healthy now, the Royals really need Cross to bounce back and resume his climb up the organizational ladder. Tyler Gentry will start the season in AAA Omaha, but don’t be surprised to see the 25 year old make his major league debut in 2024. He has plenty of power, and is the Royals #3 prospect at Royals Farm Report. If you want to dive a little deeper into the system, keep an eye on Carson Roccaforte. The Royals drafted him in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, and he turns 22 on Friday. An excellent athlete who can play anywhere in the OF, Roccaforte has many admirers among Royals commenters
CENTER FIELD
Fangraph’s Positional Power Rankings - 21st out of 30
With the relegation of Drew Waters to the minors, the center field job belongs to Kyle Isbel. Long a DC favorite, Isbel is an elite defender who just needs to hit a smidge more to be a very valuable player. 2024 is a critical year for Isbel as the 27 year old tries to solidify his future as an every day big leaguer.
Looking Ahead - The afore-mentioned Roccaforte is the leading CF prospect in the system, probably followed by 23 year old Diego Hernandez. Of course Drew Waters can play CF and he will get the call if Isbel falters or is injured.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Fangraph’s Positional Power Rankings - 25th out of 30
Like most MLB teams, the Royals will rotate guys in and out of the DH slot. Most nights though, expect Nelson Velazquez to fill that role. “Nellie Nukes” burst on the scene in 2023 after the Royals acquired him from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for reliever Jose Cuas. He swatted 14 homers in only 40 games with the Royals after hitting 3 in 13 games with the Cubs. You can do the math on how that would translate over an entire season while you are watching all 17 Nellie Nukes here…
BENCH
For now the Royals will carry 5 outfielders with Velazquez and Dairon Blanco backing up the starters. Blanco has speed to burn and a flair for the dramatic as we saw last year…
Utility guys Nick Loftin and Garrett Hampson can play all over the field and give manager Matt Quatraro a lot of flexibility. We will see if Loftin goes back to AAA when Massey is healthy. Don’t be surprised if Loftin’s production makes that decision very difficult for the Royals.
Starting Rotation
Fangraph’s Positional Power Rankings - 25th out of 30
The rotation is completely re-tooled from the train wreck that it was in 2023. Give CEO John Sherman credit, he committed $77M to free agent starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. I’ll admit the cynic in me wonders if he would have done that had he not been desperate to get a stadium sales tax extension passed next week, but the fact remains that the Royals now have a couple of actual major league quality starters to rely on. Here is how the rotation will line up to start the season
Cole Ragans - Ragans gets the Opening Day start. He was a revelation and one of the best pitchers in baseball after the Royals acquired him from Texas in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. A lefty with a 100+ mph fastball and a couple of devastating secondary pitches, Ragans could be the true ace that Royals fans have been starving for. And it’s not just Royals fans who have noticed Ragans, just this morning MLB Network’s Jon Morosi predicted that Ragans would be the AL Cy Young winner in 2024. I can’t wait to watch!
Seth Lugo - The Royals have coveted the right-handed Lugo for a couple years now, finally inking him to a free agent contract this offseason. He spent much of his career as a reliever before making 26 starts for the Padres last season. Can he hold up to another full starter’s workload? We’ll see, the 146.1 innings he threw last year were the most of his career by far.
Brady Singer - Singer is the last man standing from he 2018 “Baby Aces” draft class. Kris Bubic is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Daniel Lynch couldn’t win the 5th starter spot and will begin 2024 in Omaha. The Royals traded Jackson Kowar to the Braves in the offseason, who then dealt him to the Mariners. Sadly for Kowar, he too has had to undergo elbow reconstruction surgery and will not pitch in 2024.
Singer has been an enigma during his Royals career, some nights unhittable and others just awful. If he can regain his 2022 form it would be a huge boost to the Royals. Singer’s relationship with the team may not be as good as it should be, and a trade of the 27 year old right-hander isn’t out of the question.
Michael Wacha - The Royals have seen plenty of Wacha as the veteran righty spent most of his career in St. Louis. He was 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA last year with the Padres. Wacha had a little bit of a hand injury scare last weekend, but Matt Quatraro says he is fine and won’t miss any time.
Alec Marsh - The battle for the #5 starter job came down to incumbent Jordan Lyles, Marsh, and Lynch. Marsh came out on top. Lyles will start the season in the bullpen and Lynch in AAA Omaha. Marsh is a DC favorite, I gave my late son Andrew a signed Marsh Northwest Arkansas Naturals jersey last year. I love the 25 year old’s bulldog mentality on the mound. If Marsh can keep the ball in the ballpark he could be a pleasant surprise in 2024.
Looking Ahead - The Royals traded one of their starter prospects, David Sandlin, to the Red Sox recently, leaving lefty Frank Mozzicato and righty Ben Kudrna as the system’s top starting prospects. DC will watch their progress closely in 2024.
BULLPEN
Fangraph’s Positional Power Rankings - 27th out of 30
In last year’s Manifesto, I wrote that the 2023 bullpen “could be solid”. I was wrong. It was horrifc. Next to last in ERA. The good news is that of the 8 guys who began 2023 in the pen, exactly none of them will be there on Opening Day 2024. Only one, Carlos Hernandez, remains in the organization and he will start the season on the 15 day injured list.
JJ Picollo completely retooled the pen by acquiring arms via free agency (Will Smith, Chris Stratton), trades (Nick Anderson, John Schreiber, James McArthur), and the Rule 5 Draft (Matt Sauer).
Rounding out the pen are the afore-mentioned Jordan Lyles along with left-hander Angel Zerpa. It feels like we have been talking about Zerpa forever, it’s hard to believe he is still only 24. Zerpa has made 19 appearances and 6 starts for KC over the last three years.
Of the guys in the pen on Opening Day, I’m most intrigued by McArthur. He was acquired last season from Philadelphia and didn’t exactly wow anyone in his MLB debut, giving up 6 hits and 7 runs in one inning of work. He figured things out pretty quickly though, allowing exactly zero runs over his final 12 appearances of 2023 while striking out 19 and walking none. He is someone to watch closely as the regular season begins.
Will the bullpen be good in 2024? Who knows, I thought last year’s was going to be decent At least we have some fresh faces to watch.
COACHING
Matt Quatraro’s grade card as a manager is incomplete. His toolbox is much fuller in 2024, and it will be important for him to maximize the potential of the young players on his roster.
Hot Takes for 2024
The Royals finish 2nd in the AL Central to the Minnesota Twins with an 82-80 record.
Vinnie Pasquantino wins AL Comeback Player of the Year.
Brady Singer is traded at the deadline.
The stadium tax issue passes…barely. The online mustache wax company is mothballed, and John Sherman gets his downtown stadium.
There you have it folks. Your 2024 Royals in a 4000 word nutshell. I’m glad you made it this far and frankly glad I did as well. Nothing will ever be the same for me again, but I’m going to give the healing powers of baseball a chance.
Play Ball.
and Andrew…..I love you.